With the 2020 election approaching, each week brings a new set of presidential poll results. As perennial as the election cycle itself, the arrival of early data is accompanied by analysts and forecasters wrestling with its value. In particular we wonder how much early polling can tell us about the general election, given that so many factors — the state of the economy in 2020, the identities of the ultimate candidates, and all manner of campaign-related events — are still in flux?
Common wisdom, backed up by decades of data, is that early general election polling is not to be trusted. … While the average track record for early polls is unimpressive, analysis of recent election cycles tells a slightly different story. CONT.
Robert Griffin, Voter Study Group