… Ohio again voted for the winner in 2016, marking the 29th time in 31 elections it had done so.
However, it backed Donald Trump by eight points while Trump lost the national popular vote by two points, meaning that it was 10 points more Republican in terms of margin than the nation. Ohio’s presidential margin had not diverged so far from the national popular vote since 1932.
The shift in Ohio is best explained by two demographic realities that are driving voting patterns all over the nation: Ohio is significantly whiter than the nation as a whole, and its population has below-average levels of four-year college attainment. That means that Ohio has a relatively high share of white voters without a college degree, the group that now forms the bedrock of the Republican coalition (this was true before Trump, but is now more pronounced after Trump). Nonwhite voters, meanwhile, vote overwhelmingly Democratic, and white voters with a four-year college degree represent a swing demographic that is trending Democratic. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball