There’s an awful lot we don’t know yet: how public opinion will respond to the declassified whistleblower report, how many months an impeachment inquiry could take, what other wrongdoing it could reveal, and whether Dems will ultimately have 218 votes to pass articles of impeachment (at 235 seats, they can afford no more than 18 defections, assuming Independent Rep. Justin Amash votes to impeach).
The best case scenario for Democrats is that an all-consuming investigation into the president’s alleged abuse of his office takes a lasting toll on Trump’s standing with independents and he loses reelection by a substantial margin, dragging congressional Republican fortunes down with him.
The worst case scenario for Democrats would be that independents view them as leading a fruitless endeavor that distracts from addressing the country’s problems – and that the saga polarizes House races along the lines of 2016 results, imperiling 31 Democrats in Trump-won districts and the majority as Trump rides a strong economy to reelection.
But at the outset, here’s what we do know: CONT.
David Wasserman, Cook Political Report