Key Points
• Perhaps the biggest threat to Joe Biden is the nominating calendar.
• Biden is reliant on support from African Americans, but the electorates of the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are almost entirely white.
• However, even if one or more of Biden’s rivals best him in the leadoff states, they may not necessarily have much appeal to the crucial African-American voting bloc themselves. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball