The supposed smart take from the special election in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District is that Republican Dan Bishop underperformed compared to President Donald Trump’s 2016 performance in the district. Bishop won by 2 points while Trump won by 12 points, which is supposed to indicate that the national political environment still leans Democratic.
And while I am a fan of judging special election results by seeing how closely they match the presidential baseline in the district, I’m also a fan of not looking too closely at any one special election. Any one special election result can be a fluke because of district specific factors. I’d rather examine multiple specials.
When we do that, we see the results of the special elections that have taken place after the 2018 midterms — when Democrats took back the House — aren’t anywhere near as good for Democrats as those that occurred in the time period after Trump’s election in 2016 and the midterms. CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN