There are two major theories about President Trump’s standing heading into his re-election campaign. Over the last few months, they have found backing from two very different kinds of polls.
One theory holds that Mr. Trump is fundamentally like any other president. This would be good news for his chances in 2020: Many presidents have gone on to win after having approval ratings like Mr. Trump’s today, and many presidents have won after a midterm drubbing. The state of the economy could be pivotal; if it stayed strong, he would have a real chance to win. …
Another theory holds that President Trump and this polarized era are unique. In this view, Mr. Trump is deeply unpopular, and opinions of his presidency are entrenched. The economy cannot save him from defeat. …
Of course, the truth could be somewhere in between (and probably is). But these two theories have different consequences for how to think about the campaign in 2020. CONT.
Nate Cohn, New York Times