The possibility of a global economic slowdown and/or U.S. recession has lots of folks speculating on what it would mean for President Trump’s reelection prospects. Conventional wisdom assumes it would be a political death-blow to the President. Already struggling with anemic job approval ratings in what has been a solid economic environment, those job ratings would certainly plunge into the cellar if the economy sputters. …
While the focus thus far has been on what an economic downturn would mean for next November’s election, I’m curious about how it could affect the fight for the Democratic nomination. At a time of economic uncertainty or tumult, will Democratic voters be more attracted to candidates like Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders who argue for big, fundamental change to economic institutions? Or will Vice President Joe Biden’s more modest, incremental change be more appealing?
To help me think through this, I reached out to some of the smartest Democratic strategists I know. None of them are currently working for a presidential candidate. CONT.
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report