… Biden’s candidacy is perplexing to analysts because he’s clearly a front-runner (i.e. he leads in every poll), but he’s not running away with the primary. This is true nationally (where he’s hovered around 30%) and is especially the case in Iowa, where he’s polling lower.
Based solely on the polling, history suggests that Biden has a considerably better chance of winning the caucuses than any other candidate. Still, his chance of winning is less than 50%. CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN