… Iowa’s place at the front of the nominating process has been set by tradition and now by rules established by the Democratic and Republican national committees. Its presidential caucuses kick off the primary caucus season and it acts as the great winnower of candidates. Only a handful of this record field of candidates will survive the caucuses in February, though the number seems murkier than ever this year.
The caucuses are still nearly five months away and, yet, perhaps because there are so many candidates running, Democrats and political handicappers are trying to anticipate who those survivors will be and who will actually leave Iowa as a declared winner.
Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register and in this cycle also for CNN, has earned through many presidential cycles a reputation as the best pollster of Iowa politics. From that experience, she offers two pieces of wisdom about how to think about the coming months of campaign here. The first is never to disregard dark horse candidates. CONT.
Dan Balz, Washington Post