The four charts to keep in mind when you look at early-primary polling

… It’s all interesting and the stakes are obviously enormous. It’s just that … we might want to be wary about reading too much into things.

Since 2008, the states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have held 15 party primary contests. Of those 15, only five times were the eventual winners leading in state polls taken as far out as we are now from those contests. CONT.

Philip Bump, Washington Post