… In order to assess the outlook for the 2020 House and Senate elections, I used a forecasting model that provides fairly accurate predictions of seat swing based on four factors: the number of seats currently held by the president’s party, the president’s net approval rating in late August or early September of the election year, the results of generic ballot polling in late August or early September of the election year, and a dummy variable distinguishing midterm elections from presidential elections. Based on election outcomes in the post-World War II era, we expect that: CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball