If Trump backs down from his latest Iran threat, will he lose support? We checked.

On Tuesday, President Trump tweeted a warning to Iran that an attack “on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration.” The threat comes days after the New York Times reported that Trump backed down from retaliating against Iran for downing a U.S. surveillance drone. …

Political scientists suggest that presidents are constrained to follow through on their threats because they suffer “audience costs” — disapproval from the electorate — if they back down. Under this argument, voters disapprove of presidents who issue a threat and back down because doing so makes presidents appear less competent and harms the country’s reputation.

Recent research has sought to understand how leaders can reduce audience costs by providing new information or imposing economic sanctions rather than backing down entirely. CONT.

Miles M. Evers, Aleksandr Fisher & Steven Schaaf (GWU), Monkey Cage