… Why is polling in presidential nomination fights so unreliable? For one, no one knows who will vote. In Iowa, for instance, caucus turnout almost doubled from 2004 to 2008 (thank you, Barack Obama) and then dropped by more than a quarter in 2016. Second, a dwindling number of Americans answer phone calls from strangers, making it difficult for pollsters to get responses from an accurate sample. These problems are only compounded when the field is as sprawling and unruly as this one is. CONT.
Walter Shapiro, New Republic