Conventional wisdom says that the winner of the 2020 presidential race will be the candidate who best turns out his or her base voters. Sounds utterly sensible and, to my ear, utterly wrong. Just remember the outcome of the 2016 election, when swing voters — many of whom had voted for Barack Obama — helped put Donald Trump in the White House.
Swing voters hold the key in 2020. Which is surprising, in a way, because Trump is now the defining figure in American politics, and most voters decided a long time ago to either love him or hate him.
Most voters. But not all. And those few Americans who are still ambivalent about the president are likely to be the ones who will pick the winner. CONT.
Doug Sosnik, Washington Post