So just how much is a poll lead for the Iowa caucuses really worth at this point? That’s the big question after the latest CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was released this weekend.
For those that weren’t deeply in the polling weeds, former Vice President Joe Biden led the field at 24%. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg followed with 16%, 15% and 14% respectively. Rounding out the top five was California Sen. Kamala Harris at 7%; no other candidate polled above 2%.
A look at polls taken at about this point in primary cycles since 1980 suggests that while Biden leads now, there’s a pretty good chance he won’t actually win the caucuses. CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN