… There is no such thing as a perfect poll. If there were, it would include only people who are going to vote in the election of interest, and the sample would match their demographics precisely, both overall and within subgroups. That won’t happen because there is no way of knowing exactly who will vote – voters don’t yet know if they will – and while the pollster can work at getting the demographics right, there is always the chance that they are not, or that samples are affected by response bias.
That said, not all polls are created equal. Some are conducted responsibly and analyzed thoroughly, with the pollster applying their own skeptical and analytic oversight in reporting the results. Other polls are “quick and dirty” with less caution in sampling and an analysis that seems to stop at the top lines.
Here are some things to look for to separate the better ones from those that are fundamentally flawed. CONT.
Diane Feldman