A polling failure and a betting failure

Well, that went bad for the pollsters. Every poll published during the election campaign got it wrong.

I am as surprised as most. While it was obvious that the pollsters were doing something that reduced polling noise (and hopefully increased the polling signal), I had hoped they knew what they were doing. What I really wanted was for the pollsters to tell us (the consumers of their information) how it was made: because it ain’t what it says on the tin. CONT.

Mark the Ballot