… A number of Democratic voters appear to be frustrated by the fact that candidates who would enter contested Senate races as strong contenders are deciding not to run (at least for Senate). …
There’s one theory about why these candidates might balk at running for the Senate in red states. In 2016, there were 34 Senate races on the ballot. Not a single one of those races saw a Democrat win in a state won by Trump and not a single one of those races saw a Republican win in a state where Hillary Clinton got more votes. It was the continuation of a trend: Fewer and fewer split-ticket results between the Senate and the most recent presidential results in states since 2010. …
But then 2018 happened. CONT.
Philip Bump, Washington Post