Given the growth in the Latino electorate, which is expected to surpass African Americans as the second largest group of voters in 2020, many polling organizations now report out subgroup results for “Hispanics.” They shouldn’t. Their sample sizes of Latino voters are woefully small, typically 80-150 in size, and their methodology continues to overly-sample more conservative and more acculturated Latinos who are more likely to be US born, 3rd generation, English-dominant, college educated and live in the suburbs. We have proven this factually true in more than a dozen analysis of existing so-called “mainstream” polling when examining their Latino sample on closer inspection.
In order to get a more accurate understanding of the Latino electorate heading into the 2020 cycle we can examine the April 2019 national survey of 606 Latino registered voters conducted in partnership with the NALEO Educational Fund. Not only is there a large and robust sample, but it is demographically reflective of the true underlying Latino population with the correct proportion of immigrants, 2nd and 3rd generation, Spanish-dominant, bilingual and English-dominant voters, and does not over-sample acculturated suburban-dwelling households, but at the same time does not under-sample them. Instead, based on both the underlying sample, and the post-stratification weights, it is an accurate portrait of the national Latino electorate.
So what do Latinos think of the Trump administration and national politics five months after the historic midterm elections of 2018? CONT.
Matt Barreto, Latino Decisions