‘On Paper, the Election Is the Democrats’ to Lose’

With more than a year and a half to go before the 2020 elections, Republicans can take comfort in a number of factors.

The result of the Mueller investigation has set back Democratic hopes for an easy victory; the history of presidents running for a second term favors incumbents; and the economy under Trump is booming. …

But what is the current state of play in the American electorate?

Two major studies released this month, the General Social Survey and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, reveal some generally positive trends for Democrats: defections in the Midwest among Trump voters, as well as a shift to the left among all voters on issues of race, immigration and spending on the poor. CONT.

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times