Was the 2016 election a one-off — a once-in-a-lifetime contest between two fundamentally flawed contestants? Or, was it a realignment election; the end of Democratic dominance in the industrial Midwest as well as the loosening of the Republican grip on southwestern states like Arizona and Texas? Was Clinton the outlier in 2016 or was Obama? Who reflected the real state of play for Republicans in battleground states — Trump or Romney?
To give us some perspective, my colleague Ally Flinn built a chart to track Democratic/Republican performance in 2012, 2016 and 2018 for every state listed as competitive on our 2020 Electoral College Ratings. We also included President Trump’s job approval/disapproval ratings in those states . . . .
Here are the takeaways: CONT.
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report