Some pundits have emphasized Vice President Joe Biden’s lack of success in prior presidential races in assessing his strength as a presidential candidate this cycle. In arguing that Biden should not throw his hat into the ring, Julian Zelizer, the prominent Princeton University history professor, recently argued that Democrats had reason to be skeptical that Biden was the best available candidate. Zelizer offered other arguments for his conclusion but he wrote that “[m]ost problematic is the fact that Biden has run for the presidency several times, and each time he has struggled under the intense spotlight. When it comes time to hit the campaign trail, Biden has never been able to generate the level of support that is necessary to win.”
A little study of vice presidential history cautions against measuring Biden’s potential strength as a presidential candidate post-vice presidency based on his past presidential races. In fact, the emphasis on Biden’s past struggles illustrates the perils of using historical data without proper context. CONT.
Joel K. Goldstein (Saint Louis U.), Sabato’s Crystal Ball