The conventional wisdom is that a socially liberal, fiscally conservative independent presidential candidate — like, say, Howard Schultz, the former Starbucks CEO, who is considering just such a run — poses a threat to Democrats in 2020 by potentially dividing the anti-Trump vote. But there’s another possibility: that Schultz, or a candidate like him, could divide the pro-Trump vote instead.
I’m not going to purport to provide a comprehensive analysis of whether a Schultz-like candidate is more likely to help or hurt President Trump’s re-election chances, which is a question that can be approached from many angles. The answer will depend on what sort of candidate the Democrats nominate and what Trump’s political standing looks like late next year.
What we can do, however, is look back to 2016, when voters who are socially liberal but fiscally conservative also had to choose a presidential candidate. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight