The Wandering Voters: How 2018’s gubernatorial results reflected 2016’s presidential trends

In 2018, Democrats won over suburban voters to cruise to a roughly 8.5-point win in the national House vote, even as the rural areas remained red. In the following writeup, I look at where each party made gains this past cycle. I also look at how third-party performance in 2016 acted as a leading indicator of where there was a group of lost voters that would pick a side, in this case for the Democrats and against the party in the White House. CONT.

Noah Rudnick, Sabato’s Crystal Ball