Only one chapter in V.O. Key’s classic 1949 book Southern Politics in State and Nation named an individual in its title: “Tennessee: The Civil War and Mr. Crump.” Key described an era in Tennessee history when the Democratic primary decided who controlled statewide politics and Memphis political boss E.H. Crump — whose organization reigned longer than any other urban political machine in the 20th century — decided who would win the Democratic primary. …
Tennessee’s long migration from bluish to red — even scarlet — can be seen at a glance. As recently as 2010, its U.S. House delegation was still, with brief interludes, narrowly Democratic. Now it is solidly 7-2 Republican — not a single district has been rated as even mildly competitive in years. …
What’s become clear recently is that these two post-Crump era trends — Tennessee’s record of producing national political leaders and its march toward the Republican Party — are in tension with each other. The reason lies in the source of the GOP’s new advance: the conversion of previously Democratic rural conservative voters into Republicans, a trend that favors the elevation of statewide officials who are too right-wing to cross over into national political prominence.
To illustrate this tension, let’s explore the 2018 Senate election to replace the retiring Corker and look ahead to the 2020 election to replace Alexander, who announced last month that he plans to leave office after three terms. CONT.
Michael Nelson, Sabato’s Crystal Ball