In the days immediately after the 2018 elections the most widely circulated analysis held that along with high turnout among minority voters the significant Democratic gains in the House of Representatives and in a range of state level elections were the result of the significant defection from the GOP of college educated whites, particularly women and voters in “suburbs” across the country.
In contrast white voters with less than a college education, the group generally defined as the “white working class,” and voters in rural areas were then described as remaining completely committed to Trump and the GOP. In literally dozens of articles they were defined as the “Rock-Solid Republican “Base” and “Trump Country.”
The strategic conclusion this implied was obvious: efforts to regain support among these voters would be a waste of time. For 2020 and beyond, all Democratic efforts at voter persuasion and mobilization should be focused on educated whites, the suburbs and people of color. …
But in recent weeks new data has emerged—data that sharply contradicts the initial assessment and casts significant doubt on the strategic conclusions which have been drawn from it. CONT. – pdf
Andrew Levison, The Democratic Strategist