… The Democrats’ relative success in the mid-terms appears hard to explain in terms of the economy. Growth in the United States for the last two quarters is estimated at 4.2 and 3.5 per cent, respectively. The Democrats’ primary campaign message was about health care, an issue that has played a central part in ever mid-term election since 2010. The Democratic victories that gave the party control of the House of Representatives look largely demographic with the party securing higher voter turnout than Republicans and ensuring that its crucial constituencies, not least college-educated women, represented a larger share of the voters than was the case in 2014. The Democratic leadership has also struggled since 2016 to find a political message about the economy beyond the fact that Donald Trump should not be in charge of it.
Neither though is it evident that the apparent strength of the economy was much of an advantage for the Republicans. When it looked possible that the Democrats could conceivably win the Senate, the Republican campaign was saved by the overreach of the Democratic leadership during the Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings. CONT.
Helen Thompson (Cambridge), LSE USAPP