… In winning back the House after eight years of GOP control, Democrats captured almost every Republican-held seat that Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 presidential election. There were 25 such districts going into the election, and Republicans successfully defended only three (again, that’s assuming Valadao does eventually end up losing). Meanwhile, Democrats held 13 districts won by Trump in 2016 going into this election; they will now hold 31. Overall, there likely will be just 34 “crossover” districts nationally, down from 38 heading into the election, that voted for different parties for president in 2016 and House in 2018. That’s just 7.8% of the 435 total seats. Generally speaking, there are far fewer crossover districts now than there were a few decades ago. For instance, in the closely contested presidential election of 1976 (decided by just two points nationally), 124 of the 435 House districts (28.5%) voted differently for president and House.
Let’s take a look at both of these kinds of districts, and what they might tell us about the race for the House in 2020. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball