It’s Not Easy to Predict How Immigration Will Affect the Midterms

In the closing days of the campaign for the midterms, President Trump has clearly decided that immigration should be the central issue of this election. …

Mr. Trump’s focus on immigration has had real consequences, even though congressional candidates across the country have chosen to focus on other issues, like the economy or health care. Compared to recent elections, voters’ beliefs about immigration are more strongly related to how they plan to vote in congressional races. This shows how Mr. Trump is shaping how Americans vote even though he’s not on the ballot. His brand of identity politics has metastasized to states and districts across the country. CONT.

John Sides, Michael Tesler & Lynn Vavreck, New York Times