22,748. That’s the number of votes by which President Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election in Wisconsin. That’s 0.76 percent of all the votes cast in the state. It was also the first time since Ronald Reagan won the state in 1984 that the majority of the state voted for a Republican president. Fast forward to the 2018 midterm elections and we find that the Badger State again has one of the tightest races in the country, this time for governor. Scott Walker (R) is running for a third term against Tony Evers (D), the current Superintendent of Public Instruction.
So, what is going on in Wisconsin that makes these races so close that the state swings back and forth between Republican and Democratic majorities from election to election? To explain midterm elections, we need to look to factors like turnout, presidential-party midterm seat losses, and perception of the health of the economy. CONT.
Wendy E. Scattergood (St. Norbert College), LSE USAPP