Can voters tell us whether they’ll turn out?

It’s that point in the cycle when everyone lowers their voice, along with their head, and knowingly suggests, “It’s all about turnout.”

Leaving aside the veracity of the statement itself, it certainly puts pressure on pollsters to correctly predict the likely electorate.

Many employ straightforward questions to ascertain whether an individual is likely to turn out.

But this is another example of poll questions that don’t mean what they say. These so-called turnout screens don’t work very well. CONT.

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill