The claim that an upcoming election “all comes down to turnout” is one of the most venerable clichés in American punditry. But it’s become more popular than ever in an era when the mass public is commonly characterized as consisting of two implacable partisan tribes, equally unshakable in their preferences and aversions. If virtually every potential voter is a loyal member of either the red team or the blue team, the outcome of a national election is presumably determined simply by which party can motivate its supporters to participate at the highest rate. CONT.
David A. Hopkins, Boston College