Minnesota’s Eighth District is one of a handful of Democratic-held House seats where Republicans have a realistic shot to win in the midterms in three weeks. The incumbent, Rick Nolan, is retiring, and he won by only one percentage point in 2016 in a district President Trump carried by 15.
When we polled this district in September, we found the Democratic candidate, Joe Radinovich, up by one point. Now, we have the Republican, Pete Stauber, up by 15. …
Is the shift real? Probably not entirely. But there’s probably more truth to it than a lot of Democrats criticizing the poll want to admit.
It’s a case that highlights the challenge of polling in general, and the particular challenges of polling in some states. CONT.
Nate Cohn, New York Times