As we enter the final month of Campaign 2018, the political world remains fixated on embattled U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who awaits the findings of an FBI investigation into whether he tried to sexually assault Dr. Christine Blasey Ford while both were in high school. The allegations, somewhat predictably given the tribal nature of our politics, divided the country along partisan lines. For instance, Quinnipiac University found an almost identical plurality who said they do not want Kavanaugh confirmed (48% against, 42% for) and who said they will vote Democratic in their local House race (49% Democratic, 42% Republican).
We find it difficult to assess the importance of the Kavanaugh situation while his nomination remains in limbo. It does make some intuitive sense to suggest that the outcome, whatever it is, could have a limited and possibly contradictory electoral effect depending on the race. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball Senate ratings
