… What nonpartisans make of Mr. Trump’s stewardship of the economy may give us some insight into whether Republicans will get a boost in the midterms, because independents are often the most persuadable voters. It may also offer an indicator of whether weakly committed Republican partisans might defect at the polls, even as their ratings of presidential approval remain high. …
Relying on independents as a bellwether for political outcomes is not as straightforward as it seems. Independents tend to be less connected to politics in general, paying less attention to news about public affairs and expressing less interest in politics than partisans. CONT.
Lynn Vavreck (UCLA), New York Times