The Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien team first applied our model in 2006 and were among the first to predict the return of the Democratic majority. That forecast was off by only two seats. Like most others, our model predicted a Republican takeover in 2010, underestimating the GOP swing by about 10 seats. In 2014 we overshot the Republican surge by just one seat. We now repeat our midterm forecasting exercise for 2018.
Based on information gathered in June, our forecast for 2018 is that the Democrats will gain seats in the House and most likely enough to retake control. CONT.
Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson & Christopher Wlezien, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
See also: Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election