Forecast Calls for Legislative Paralysis in the Next Congress

So who will be in charge in Washington next year? Right now, The Cook Political Report is forecasting that the most likely midterm-election outcome in the House is Democrats picking up between 20 and 40 seats, with a 30-seat net gain a plausible guess. A Democratic gain of 23 seats is the minimum necessary for the party to gain the speaker’s gavel, and a haul of more than 40 seats is likelier than a gain of fewer than 20 seats, a wash, or a GOP gain. …

So what could be the anticipated policy consequences of the most-likely election scenarios? Keeping in mind that it is almost always easier to stop something than to pass something, we should first expect legislative paralysis to get even worse than today. Even if Democrats win big in the House, the odds are good that the Senate will still be in Republican hands; even the best-case scenario for Democrats is a tiny Senate majority for them—and President Trump will still wield the veto pen. CONT.

Charlie Cook