It may be the oldest assumption in politics: Incumbents hold an advantage, and the longer they are there, the more powerful they are. It makes inherent sense: The voters know incumbents better, incumbents can wield more power to bring home the bacon, and incumbents are able to raise more cash. However, the rules of politics have changed. Incumbents can no longer use influence to secure their district pork barrel spending or perks from a committee chairmanship. There’s evidence that the effect of spending, now in the millions on close races, may not even have any measurable outcome on the performance of a race anymore. CONT.
Noah Rudnick, Sabato’s Crystal Ball