With the midterm election less than three months away, there is considerable agreement among forecasters on the Democrats’ chances of regaining a House majority: 73 percent (538), 70 percent (The Economist), 67 percent (PredictIt), 67 percent (Good Judgment) and 64 percent (Predictwise). Now, a new GW Politics Poll provides a window into the origins of this Democratic advantage and the challenges facing Republicans.
This poll — which is sponsored by George Washington University — is unusual because it is tracking the views of the same group of registered voters over time. In total, 3,150 were interviewed online by the survey firm YouGov in the first poll in mid-May. In this most recent poll, just over 2,700 of these voters were interviewed a second time, most of them from July 23-31.
Five important findings stand out. CONT.
John Sides (GWU), Monkey Cage