In 2012, Sen. Sherrod Brown faced more than $24 million in ads from conservative groups opposing his first reelection. Six years later, the Democrat has been forgotten as outside groups have almost entirely abandoned the Ohio airwaves, vastly improving his chances to win a third term in November.
Brown’s comfortable position comes as something of a surprise given President Trump won Ohio by more than 8 percentage points in 2016.
But a new study, by a Republican strategist, suggests it should not be a surprise at all. Bruce Mehlman, a former Bush administration official, surveyed the past 10 midterm elections — covering 333 Senate races dating to 1978 — and discovered Brown’s standing is actually the norm for a midterm election. And it is all because of Trump.
“The single most important factor is whether your party occupies the White House. If you are out of power and an incumbent, you just rarely lose,” said Mehlman, now a partner at a bipartisan lobbying firm. CONT.
Paul Kane, Washington Post