An already turbulent national political environment was rocked by another major development Wednesday afternoon: Justice Anthony Kennedy, the closest thing there is to a swing vote on the Supreme Court, decided to retire. …
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who sees pushing the judiciary to the right as a top priority while Trump is president and the GOP controls the Senate, is also a skillful tactician who likely will try to both get a new justice confirmed and also use the vacancy as a weapon against red state Senate Democrats, of whom there are quite a few on the ballot this November. Any Democrat who votes for this new nominee will anger a certain percentage of Democrats even in very red states. These Democratic voters may choose not to show up at the polls or may stop donating money to express their displeasure. Or, if the red state Democrats vote against Trump’s pick, they might energize more Republican presidential voters to turn out and support their GOP opponents. In McConnell’s calculation, heads they lose, tails they lose. CONT.
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball