It has been almost 18 months since the 2018 presidential election, but pundits and scholars continue to debate how President Donald Trump pulled off one of the most shocking upsets in recent political history. There is general agreement on one point — Trump’s strong appeal to white-working class voters was crucial to his success, especially in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, there continues to be strong disagreement about why the class divide among whites was even larger in 2016 than in other recent elections.
Analysts have suggested two major explanations for Trump’s strong appeal to the white working class: economic distress and racial/ethnic resentment. According to the economic distress theory, Trump’s appeal was based mainly on his promises to address problems such as stagnant wages, foreign competition, and the loss of manufacturing jobs. In contrast, according to the racial/ethnic resentment theory, Trump’s appeal to the white working class was based primarily on his use of explicit messages invoking resentment and fear of racial minorities and immigrants.
In this article, I examine support for Donald Trump among the white working class some six months into his presidency. Using data from a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center during June and July of 2017, I show that after six months in office, Trump continued to receive strong support among members of the white working class. In addition, the data indicate that racial/ethnic resentment was much more important than economic distress in explaining support for Trump. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball