Our expert survey results in March 2018 demonstrate increased threat levels and perceived risk of democratic breakdown. From February to March 2018, ratings worsened on all six dimensions of democratic performance, further reversing the improvement from December to January. Experts rate a 9.1% chance of democratic breakdown in the U.S. within the next four years and 100% of respondents believe that democratic quality has declined over the last 10 years.
In general, democracy experts see American political behavior in 2017-18 as firmly outside the norm for consolidated democracies. The results indicate a high point of threat in March on everything but civil violence and civil liberties. There were particularly large shifts in threats surrounding executive constraints, treatment of the media, and rhetoric. CONT.
Michael K. Miller (GWU), Authoritarian Warning Survey
