Relative to the 2016 presidential election result there, the PA-18 special had a large swing in the Democratic direction. Looking at the two-party vote, Trump won the district by 20.3 points in 2016 while losing the national popular vote by 2.2 percentage points to Hillary Clinton, meaning the district’s lean was 22.5 points to the right of the nation as a whole. Conor Lamb’s (D) apparent victory margin of 0.3 points over state Rep. Rick Saccone (R) signified a 22.8-point swing in margin toward Democrats from the 2016 presidential result in PA-18.
From a historical perspective, this was a sizable though not record-breaking swing when comparing U.S. House special election results to previous presidential numbers. CONT.
Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball