Down but Not Out: A Case for GOP Optimism about the 2018 Elections

The unique characteristics of the Trump candidacy and his continuing unique style of leadership have led us and other pollsters to reflect on our methods of measuring public opinion. We are continuing to experiment with different ways to measure voter attitudes about President Trump, and several of these new methods are used in this polling.

The 2016 campaign had an unusual set of candidates. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton spent much of the 2016 campaign with a majority of the electorate holding an unfavorable impression of them. In fact, both of them frequently had a majority of the likely electorate holding strongly unfavorable views of them. However, Donald Trump also often had a significant portion of the electorate with strongly favorable views of him. For all her strengths as a candidate, Hillary Clinton struggled to cultivate a similar level of passion among her supporters.

These passionate Trump supporters were key to his 2016 victory. The importance of this segment to the Trump campaign is a critical factor for analyzing the decisions and actions of the Trump administration. The President and his allies are committed to maintaining this passionate support. …

This latest Battleground Poll fielded March 4th through the 8th among N=1000 likely 2018 voters does find troubling signs for Republican candidates across the country. A majority of voters think the country is on the wrong track. Republicans trail on the generic Congressional ballot by nine points, which is well outside the expected Democratic advantage on this ballot. A majority of voters disapprove of the job performance of President Trump. CONT. – pdf

Ed Goeas & Brian Nienaber, The Tarrance Group