As the midterm election cycle picks up steam, American voters continue to harbor adverse feelings toward President Trump, a continually robust force for division and polarization. Voters continue to hold mixed feelings about the economy, and amidst a 24-hour news cycle defined by scandals, uniquely discordant partisan policy battles, and the ever-looming investigation into Russian election meddling, voters continue to be alarmed about the direction of the country. Beyond disliking and distrusting the President, voters also strongly disapprove of the Republican-controlled Congress, though they do reserve more positive feeling towards their own member of Congress.
The overall sense of animosity towards the President and elected officials in Washington appears to have opened the door for Democrats, who now lead by 8 points on a generic 2018 congressional ballot, to make gains in the upcoming midterms. Still, while voters express disdain for the President’s handling of several critical issues such as healthcare, immigration, and foreign policy, they do profess favorable opinions of his stewardship over the economy and job creation, with the jury largely still out on his (and the Republican Congress’s) central accomplishment of the tax reform law. What remains to be seen is how much these issues, as well as the unexpected ones that are sure to arise before November, will impact voters support for candidates in 2018. That being said, Democrats certainly have an opportunity to capitalize on the current environment, especially if they are able to combine the enthusiasm on the left with the new inroads forming to centrists and independents, especially independent women, to mount challenges to Congressional Republicans. To mobilize turnout and persuade the swing, Democrats must establish stronger credentials on the economy. CONT – pdf.
Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, Gary Ritterstein, Corey Teter & Hayley Cohen, Lake Research Partners