The States Where Democrats Are Overperforming Most — And Least — In Special Elections

… Special election results so far this cycle are among the clearest portents of a Democratic wave in November. Democrats are beating their usual percentages of the vote not only in special federal elections (i.e., for the U.S. Senate and House), but also in special state legislative elections. …

But a wave may not crash uniformly on every shore. As state-by-state polling of Trump’s approval rating shows, the national mood really isn’t so national. Voters in different corners of the country differ in how deep their anger runs — and at whom it’s directed. This could have big implications for the midterm elections, considering how important political geography is these days. CONT.

Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight