This is turning out to be a fascinating midterm election, pitting the Democratic wave against the Republican seawall.
Historic midterm voting patterns combined with national, state, and district-level polling data and off-year election results are combining to make a strong case for a classic midterm wave—obviously not what Republicans want to see. But district boundaries and natural population patterns provide at least some degree of protection for House Republicans. Similarly, in the upper chamber, the states that have Senate seats up tilt the playing field decidedly toward Republicans. As Shakespeare might (but probably wouldn’t) say, “The wave or the wall—that is the question.” CONT.
Charlie Cook