I’ve been covering American elections at FiveThirtyEight for almost 10 years. During that time, by far the most remarkable outcomes — of course — were Barack Obama being elected president in 2008 and Donald Trump being elected in 2016.
But in third and fourth place1 were two special elections to the U.S. Senate: Scott Brown’s January 2010 election in Massachusetts and Doug Jones’s victory on Tuesday night in Alabama. Each occurred at roughly the same point in Obama’s and Trump’s respective terms. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight