In public debates about economic policy, it can be hard to separate real insights from political posturing. But a few simple rules of thumb can help. …
The government statistical agencies typically offer only a dry recitation of the numbers. But for people with a partisan perspective, the latest economic numbers often signal the beginning of a new spin cycle.
Each new report contains dozens of statistics on different sectors of the economy, creating plenty of scope to cherry-pick the figures that best fit a particular narrative. The main constraint on political spin appears to be avoiding untruths likely to earn the ire of fact-checkers. Mr. Trump’s evident propensity to repeat outright falsehoods may make him an exception to this rule.
Because the state of the economy usually evolves slowly, and its effect is seen across a range of indicators, a good rule is to discount any narrative built on the latest monthly number. Far better to look for persistent trends across many data sources. CONT.
Justin Wolfers, New York Times